Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis Of Combined Building Energy Simulation And Life Cycle Assessment, Implications For The Early Urban Design Process

Roland Reitberger Technical University of Munich
Farzan Banihashemi Technical University of Munich
Werner Lang Technical University of Munich

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a suitable approach for evaluating environmental impact (e.g. Global Warming Potential (GWP)) related to construction elements and building operation. Since both contribute significantly to the lifecycle based GWP of buildings, combined consideration is necessary. This applies especially for the early design stages when measures for climate change mitigation can be implemented in a cost efficient manner. In this paper, we describe a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (SA/UA) for energy simulation and LCA with a total of 8,000 parameter combinations. Thereby, we investigated valuable input for the setup of a collaborative design process with limited information. Standardised Regression Coefficients (SRCs) were used to obtain sensitivity and resulting uncertainties were investigated. The results indicate Primary Energy Source (PES), compactness and energy standard to be the most important information for the robustness of the combined LCA approach. Uncertainty can be reduced by e.g. defining the energy system in an early stage or by designing compact buildings. Related to the early design stages, the application of combined approaches for SA and UA is recommended, as the results differ for embodied and operational emissions.

Keywords: Early Design Stages, Sensitivity Analysis (Sa), Uncertainty Analysis (Ua), Life Cycle Assessment (Lca), Urban Scale, Synergy Potential, Sdg 13

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